Clear-eyed research on equities and the macro that moves them.
Brighthedge publishes deep-dive equity initiations and macro thesis pieces — the kind of work that takes a position and shows its math. No hot takes, no horoscopes. Just a framework, the numbers behind it, and the trade.
01 — Latest research
The Earnings Are the Bubble
Record highs, record complacency, and a depreciation clock the market hasn't started. The bubble is in the earnings, not the multiple — 100% of the AI revenue is booked now while the matching expense lands on a schedule the income statement hasn't met.
Zscaler: cheap against its peers, fully valued against its cash
A founder-led platform repriced 54% in a year — the cheapest scaled, higher-quality name in security software on sales, yet still fully valued on the cash it generates once stock comp is counted. Watchlist; probability-weighted fair value ~$117 vs a ~$134 price.
The Dollar's Borrowed Strength
A new Fed chair, a blocked strait, and a market that thinks the dollar's props are sturdier than they are. EUR/USD higher and USD/JPY lower through 30 Sep — the compression comes from the foreign legs rising, not the Fed cutting.
Fortinet: the business is a Buy, the entry point is not
An elite security franchise priced for near-perfection — >50% global firewall share and net cash, but the stock embeds a near-certain bull case. Initiating at Watchlist.
The Commodity With No Futures
A 1955 corner, a 1958 law that has never been repealed, and the one place a market lets us run its own counterfactual — onions.
02 — The discipline
A full thesis on a single name — the model, the bull/base/bear, the price target, and the specific things that would make me wrong.
Cross-asset writeups that connect a policy or flow regime to positioning — rates, FX, and the equity read-through, in one frame.
Every number is sourced. Every call carries a falsifier. If the thesis breaks, you read it here first — not in the next piece.