Archive · Equities & macro

Research

Every Brighthedge piece, newest first. All research is free to read. Each carries a price target, a model, and the specific things that would make it wrong.

All research

6 published
2026-06-11
◆ Macro thesis

The Market Already Hiked

Fed funds futures carry a full hike into December. The curve delivered that hike months ago — and the new chair's tightening, when it lands next Wednesday, won't come through the policy rate at all. Zero hikes in 2026; the priced hike path is the cleanest mispricing on the board.

11 min · Macro
Rates · Fed
○ Free
2026-06-04
▸ Equity research

Zscaler: cheap against its peers, fully valued against its cash

A founder-led platform repriced 54% in a year — the cheapest scaled, higher-quality name in security software on sales, yet still fully valued on the cash it generates once stock comp is counted. The whole call is whether the market prices revenue or cash. Watchlist; probability-weighted fair value ~$117 vs a ~$134 price.

35 min · Equity
ZS
○ Free
2026-06-04
◆ Macro thesis

The Earnings Are the Bubble

Record highs, record complacency, and a depreciation clock the market hasn't started. The bubble is in the earnings, not the multiple — and the single variable that decides crash-or-worse is the total addressable market.

18 min · Macro
AI · Equities
○ Free
2026-05-22
◆ Macro thesis

The Dollar's Borrowed Strength

A new Fed chair, a blocked strait, and a market that thinks the dollar's props are sturdier than they are. EUR/USD higher and USD/JPY lower through 30 Sep — the compression comes from foreign legs rising, not the Fed cutting.

8 min · Macro
FX · Rates
○ Free
2026-05-22
▸ Equity initiation

Fortinet: the business is a Buy, the entry point is not

An elite security franchise priced for near-perfection — >50% global firewall share and net cash, but the stock embeds a near-certain bull case. Initiating at Watchlist; intrinsic fair value $85–100 vs a $129.46 close.

30 min · Equity
FTNT
○ Free
2026-05-22
◆ Macro thesis

The Commodity With No Futures

A 1955 corner, a 1958 law that has never been repealed, and the one place a market lets us run its own counterfactual — onions.

11 min · Macro
Commodities
○ Free
// Stay on the desk

Get every thesis the day it publishes.

Every Brighthedge piece — equity initiations and macro thesis — is free to read, sent the day it publishes. No spam, no upsell.